## Why Not Mars ### Why Not Mars  #### Metadata * Author: [[idlewords.com]] * Full Title: Why Not Mars * Category: #articles * URL: <https://idlewords.com/2023/1/why_not_mars.htm?utm_source=hackernewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=fav> #### Highlights * Sticking a flag in the Martian dust would cost something north of half a trillion dollars [1], with no realistic prospect of landing before 2050 [2]. To borrow a quote from John Young, keeping such a program funded through fifteen consecutive Congresses would require a series "of continuous miracles, interspersed with acts of God". [3] Like the Space Shuttle and Space Station before it, the Mars program would exist in a state of permanent redesign by budget committee until any logic or sense in the original proposal had been wrung out of it. * But as orbiters started arriving in the 2000's, Mars got a glow-up. The surface might be dry, but in most places there was water ice just underneath. Dynamic surface features hinted that water (or at least brine) was flowing to the surface from deep underground. In 2020, radar surveys found evidence of at least two subglacial lakes[13] under the south polar cap, strongly implying a reservoir of geothermal heat[14]. And earlier this month, an article in Nature announced the discovery of an active mantle plume[15] below Elysium Planitia, catapulting Mars onto the VIP list of geologically active worlds. * Somehow we've embarked on the biggest project in history even though it has no articulable purpose, offers no benefits, and will cost taxpayers more than a good-sized war. Even the builders of the Great Pyramid at Giza could at least explain what it was for. And yet this project has sailed through an otherwise gridlocked system with the effortlessness of a Pentagon budget. Presidents of both parties now make landing on Mars an official goal of US space policy. Even billionaires who made their fortune automating labor on Earth agree that Mars must be artisanally explored by hand. * The Mars Religion When you hold on to a belief so strongly that neither facts nor reason can change it, what you are doing is no longer science, but religion. So I've come to believe the best way to look at our Mars program is as a faith-based initiative. There is a small cohort of people who really believe in going to Mars, the way some people believe in ghosts or cryptocurrency, and this group has an outsize effect on our space program. At NASA, the faith takes the form of a cargo cult. The agency has persuaded itself that re-enacting the Moon landings with enough fidelity will reward them with a trip to Mars, bringing back the limitless budgets, uncomplicated patriotism, and rapt public attention of the early sixties. They send up their rockets with the same touching faith that keeps Amtrak hauling empty dining cars across the prairie, dreaming of the golden age of rail. * introducing a large ecosystem of microbes to the area around the landing site. If any fugitives from the spacecraft make their way to a survivable niche on Mars, we may never be able to tell whether biotic signatures later found on the planet are traces of native life, or were left by escapees from our first Martian outhouse. Like careless investigators who didn't wear gloves to a crime scene, we would risk permanently destroying the evidence we came to collect. * Even the astronaut corps recognizes that exploring Mars and keeping it pristine are irreconcilable activities, like trying to drill for oil in a cleanroom. The problem goes beyond practical questions like how to store 17 months of astronaut shit and gets to the crux of the matter: why is bringing a leaky, bacteria-filled terrarium to Mars step one[52] in our search for Martian life? What incredible ability do astronauts have that justifies taking this risk? * SpaceX has built some magnificent rockets, and their dynamism is a welcome change from the souls-trapped-in-powerpoint vibe at NASA. If their founder were anyone else, SpaceX's incredible track record of achievement would force us to take their Mars plan[65] seriously. But their founder is who he is, and what he has publicly shared is not so much a blueprint as an inspirational poster. # Why Not Mars  ## Metadata - Author: [[idlewords.com]] - Full Title: Why Not Mars - Category: #articles - URL: https://idlewords.com/2023/1/why_not_mars.htm?utm_source=hackernewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=fav ## Highlights - Sticking a flag in the Martian dust would cost something north of half a trillion dollars [1], with no realistic prospect of landing before 2050 [2]. To borrow a quote from John Young, keeping such a program funded through fifteen consecutive Congresses would require a series “of continuous miracles, interspersed with acts of God”. [3] Like the Space Shuttle and Space Station before it, the Mars program would exist in a state of permanent redesign by budget committee until any logic or sense in the original proposal had been wrung out of it. - But as orbiters started arriving in the 2000’s, Mars got a glow-up. The surface might be dry, but in most places there was water ice just underneath. Dynamic surface features hinted that water (or at least brine) was flowing to the surface from deep underground. In 2020, radar surveys found evidence of at least two subglacial lakes[13] under the south polar cap, strongly implying a reservoir of geothermal heat[14]. And earlier this month, an article in Nature announced the discovery of an active mantle plume[15] below Elysium Planitia, catapulting Mars onto the VIP list of geologically active worlds. - Somehow we’ve embarked on the biggest project in history even though it has no articulable purpose, offers no benefits, and will cost taxpayers more than a good-sized war. Even the builders of the Great Pyramid at Giza could at least explain what it was for. And yet this project has sailed through an otherwise gridlocked system with the effortlessness of a Pentagon budget. Presidents of both parties now make landing on Mars an official goal of US space policy. Even billionaires who made their fortune automating labor on Earth agree that Mars must be artisanally explored by hand. - The Mars Religion When you hold on to a belief so strongly that neither facts nor reason can change it, what you are doing is no longer science, but religion. So I’ve come to believe the best way to look at our Mars program is as a faith-based initiative. There is a small cohort of people who really believe in going to Mars, the way some people believe in ghosts or cryptocurrency, and this group has an outsize effect on our space program. At NASA, the faith takes the form of a cargo cult. The agency has persuaded itself that re-enacting the Moon landings with enough fidelity will reward them with a trip to Mars, bringing back the limitless budgets, uncomplicated patriotism, and rapt public attention of the early sixties. They send up their rockets with the same touching faith that keeps Amtrak hauling empty dining cars across the prairie, dreaming of the golden age of rail. - introducing a large ecosystem of microbes to the area around the landing site. If any fugitives from the spacecraft make their way to a survivable niche on Mars, we may never be able to tell whether biotic signatures later found on the planet are traces of native life, or were left by escapees from our first Martian outhouse. Like careless investigators who didn’t wear gloves to a crime scene, we would risk permanently destroying the evidence we came to collect. - Even the astronaut corps recognizes that exploring Mars and keeping it pristine are irreconcilable activities, like trying to drill for oil in a cleanroom. The problem goes beyond practical questions like how to store 17 months of astronaut shit and gets to the crux of the matter: why is bringing a leaky, bacteria-filled terrarium to Mars step one[52] in our search for Martian life? What incredible ability do astronauts have that justifies taking this risk? - SpaceX has built some magnificent rockets, and their dynamism is a welcome change from the souls-trapped-in-powerpoint vibe at NASA. If their founder were anyone else, SpaceX’s incredible track record of achievement would force us to take their Mars plan[65] seriously. But their founder is who he is, and what he has publicly shared is not so much a blueprint as an inspirational poster.